Poll Omens Grim
John Hinderaker

Last night, I wrote a relatively optimistic post about the fundamental strength of the Republicans' position going into the election. Take a look, though, at the poll results from yesterday and the day before, compiled at Real Clear Politics. It's a sea of blue, with the Democratic candidate leading in just about every race for every office, nationwide. The polls can't all be screwy, ...

Sprint to the Finish
Hatched by Dafydd

Power Line is pessimistic about the election (so what else is new?); but I just went through the list of all 40 competitive House races on Real Clear Politics, and I found only 8 clear pickups for the Democrats.

Of course, many of the remaining races were tossups with the Dems slightly ahead, and they will win several of them. But I still don't see a clear path to a net pickup of 15, which is what they need to take the House back.

The Republicans have an incredible GOTV (get out the vote) drive, much better than the Democrats; this is probably good for 3%-4% in the polls. And the natural bias of polls towards Democrats is good for another 1%-2%. Thus, I call it for the Democrats if they're generally winning in the polls by 7% or better; closer than that, and it's questionable whether the Dems can make it across the finish line in first place.

Another point I noticed: ...

Sea Of Blue?
Ed Morrissey

We're a little more than three weeks out from the midterm elections, and a sense of pessimism can be sensed from the Right. It's expressed best, although briefly, by Power Line, which takes a look at the polling reports at Real Clear Politics and sees a "sea of blue". Dafydd at Big Lizards sees most of the races that give Power Line the blues as too close to call. Hugh Hewitt remains as optimistic as ever, but Hugh is an undying font of optimism anyway.

I'm inclined to lean towards Dafydd's analysis, which you should read in full. The GOP will no doubt lose seats in the midterms, but I'm not sure that the Democrats have enough momentum to wrest control of either chamber. The Senate races are more of a national campaign, but the Democrats have to pick up six seats -- and they're likely going to lose New Jersey, which makes that difficult. They could lose Maryland as well; Steele's close to Cardin and the GOTV efforts there will make the difference. Mike DeWine has rebounded against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, but that's a day-to-day thing at best.

In the House, the effort seems even more difficult.  ...

Glenn Reynolds says the Republicans have earned it fair and square:

A GOP PRE-MORTEM: So is it over for the GOP majorities in Congress? It's still too early to say, I guess, but when even John Hinderaker is sounding extremely gloomy that's certainly the way to bet.

So I want to stress, for the edification of any Republican leaders who might pay attention, that this is the result of a series of unforced errors on their part. Following is a (partial) list:

1. The Terri Schiavo affair: The bitterness it aroused, which was substantial, opened a fracture in the GOP coalition: Social-conservatives against the rest. And as I noted at the time, the social conservatives were pretty nasty to the rest. No, it wasn't really a case of "theocracy" at work, as people like Ralph Nader agreed with the social conservatives. But the haste to enact federal legislation over a matter of state law, and the mean-spiritedness with which those who disagreed were treated, did the Bush coalition no good. What's more, as I noted at the time (see first link above), this wasn't enough to make the social conservatives happy anyway. Politically, I think this marked the beginning of the end.

2. The Harriet Miers debacle: Plenty of warning in the blogs that this was a big mistake, ...

3. The Dubai Ports disaster: ...

4. Immigration: Another unforced error. ...

5. William Jefferson: ...

6. Foleygate: Not much of a scandal in itself, but the last straw for a lot of people. ...

At the end of this process, the Republicans have managed to leave every segment of the base unhappy, mostly over things that weren't even all that important. It's as if they had some sort of bizarre death wish. Looks like the wish will come true . . . .

As I've said before, the Republicans deserve to lose, though alas the Democrats don't really deserve to win, either. ...

As I wrote earlier, in suggesting that the GOP deserved to lose:

The counter-case is that a Democratic House would be a disaster for the country. I gathered from Boortz's discussion that that's the case that Hannity and Limbaugh were making yesterday. It's a strong argument -- except that if Republican control of the Congress is so all-fired important to the future of civilization, then why haven't the Republicans who control Congress been acting as if it is so important? . . .

Were GOP control of the Congress so important to the country, wouldn't the GOP leadership have exercised a trifle more self-discipline and self-denial? And if it's not capable of doing so, then what kind of leadership is it?

If, as seems likely, the GOP fares badly in next month, it should ponder this point. If it somehow squeaks through -- well, then it should ponder this point just as hard, as it will have squeaked through in spite of its performance, not because of it.

*** Update and bump. Original timestamp 2006.10.14.16:16

Why the sea of blue?
Paul Mirengoff

Back in July, I predicted that the Democrats would take control of the House and gain five Senate seats. At the time, this prediction seemed pessimistic; today it just about reflects the conventional wisdom and many Republicans would probably settle for retaining control, however slight, of one chamber. As John noted earlier today, the poll results at Real Clear Politics are a "sea of blue."

Why is that? To quote Malachi Mulligan, it seems history is to blame. As far as I can tell, it is virtually unheard of for a president to go 4-0. To accomplish this, a president must be elected twice in a row and his party must avoid defeat in both off-year congressional elections. I don't know whether Andrew Jackson did it, but I don't believe it's been done since. Even 3-0 is rare. If a president is fortunate enough to be re-elected, odds are that the voters will punish him (and his party) in an off-year election. ...

***

White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects
Self-Assurance of Bush, Rove and Others Is Not Shared by Many in the Party

By Michael Abramowitz
Washington Post Staff Writer

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term.

In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to "run the table," as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats -- a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable. ...

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Disagreeing With “Captain” Ed
Bruce Kesler

“Captain” Ed Morrissey, of CaptainsQuarters blog, well deserves to be a leader of the conservative side of the blogosphere, for his judgments, clarity and energy. He’s, also, a stout friend and a strong believer in independent thought and open forums of civil discussion.

So, when I occasionally disagree with him, it’s in that spirit. But, also my spirit as a Sergeant who doesn’t give up, and who makes his own judgments on the front lines.

Ed comments on the discussions among some non-Left leading bloggers about the likely drubbing Republicans may take in the November elections:

[...]

True enough, but a half-truth. And, a half-truth is still not whole cloth, and the holes should be recognized. ...

See the continuation of this post at Bride of "Blue, Navy Blue ..." -- Surrender Hell!