Iran's Ahmadinejad Far Weaker Than He Lets On
By Victor Davis Hanson
The Iraq Study Group, prominent U.S. Senators and realist diplomats all want America to hold formal talks with the government of Iran. They think Tehran might help the United States disengage from Iraq and the general Middle East mess with dignity. That would be a grave error for a variety of reasons - the most important being that Iran is far shakier than we are.
The world of publicity-hungry Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not expanding, but shrinking. Despite his supposedly populist credentials, his support at home and abroad will only further weaken as long as the United States continues its steady, calm and quiet pressure on him.
In Iran's city council elections last week, moderate conservative and reformist candidates defeated Ahmadinejad's vehemently anti-American slate of allies. At a recent public meeting, angry Iranian students - tired of theocratic lunacy and repression - shouted down their president.
By supporting terrorists in Iraq and Lebanon, enriching uranium and insanely threatening to destroy a nuclear Israel, Ahmadinejad is only alienating Iranians, who wonder where their once vast oil revenues went and how they can possibly pay for all these wild adventures. ...
Iran’s “Oil Weapon” Is A Dud
See-Dubya
I head seen references to the recent National Academy of Sciences report about Iran’s crumbling oil infrastructure in a few places–Allah cheerily noted here that Iran will have the bomb by the time the tanks go dry and Iran turns into Mad-Max level anarchy. Ace, pointed out that it was being spun as a reason not to attack Iraq. The AP report he linked quotes the main scientist saying as much:
If the United States can “hold its breath” for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Stern said, is good reason to belay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.
“What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do,” he said.
“The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them,” Stern said. “Here is one problem that might solve itself.”
That’s a good conservative sentiment; many problems may solve themselves and don’t need meddling with. But another account of the report in today’s Telegraph quotes Prof. Stern saying something else:
“They cannot afford to carry out their threats to shut off oil supplies,” he said. “There is no oil weapon, it’s just a bluff.”
I think that’s very important. Lemme tell you why. ...
