NYT: Everything comin’ up roses for Al Qaeda in Waziristan
Allahpundit

The stories about AQ taking over the Pakistani border areas are the Sunni jihadist equivalent of the Iranian nuclear saga: it’s a slow-motion train wreck, it gets worse with each passing moment, and there’s seemingly nothing the west can do short of watered-down sanctions that won’t make the problem considerably worse. Bryan called the Waziristan peace deal between Musharraf and the tribal elders a “surrender” days after it was announced; it was obvious within weeks, as cross-border attacks on coalition troops in Afghanistan increased, that it was a disaster; and the Times itself finally administered the last rites in an article back in December, declaring that the tribal areas had become “a Taliban mini-state” infested with foreign fighters and would-be suicide bombers. AQ groupie Peter Bergen warned WaPo readers back in July not to assume the leadership was finished, either. That warning proved prescient a month later when the UK airline plotters were linked to higher-ups in Al Qaeda, and it proved prescient again a few weeks ago when the Daily Mail claimed that a “senior AQ terrorist with close links to Osama Bin Laden” was behind the cell that planned to kidnap and behead British Muslim soldiers. Meanwhile, Musharraf’s looking to expand the treaties with the tribal elders and Pakistan’s foreign minister wants NATO to make a deal with the Taliban, even as suicide bombs are going off inside Pakistani courtrooms and captured AQ operatives are accusing Pakistani intelligence of sheltering Mullah Omar.

Which is a long way of saying that nothing in tonight’s Times article, including the news about the training camps, should come as a surprise. ...

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Al Qaeda Spring
Jules Crittenden

NYT, citing intel sources who don’t want to discuss details, says al Qaeda is on the upswing in North Waziristan:   

WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 — Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significant control over their once battered worldwide terror network and over the past year have set up a band of training camps in the tribal regions near the Afghan border, according to American intelligence and counterterrorism officials.

American officials said there was mounting evidence that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, had been steadily building an operations hub in the mountainous Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. Until recently, the Bush administration had described Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri as detached from their followers and cut off from operational control of Al Qaeda.

The United States has also identified several new Qaeda compounds in North Waziristan, including one that officials said might be training operatives for strikes against targets beyond Afghanistan. ..

Very interesting.  If al Qaeda is ”gaining strength despite more than five years of a sustained American-led campaign to weaken it,” it sounds like it has a way to go. Recent track record spotty. A few days ago, Stratfor suggested that al-Zawahiri’s deference to the one-eyed mullah Omar boded ill for Osama. In any case, more reason to lean on the Paks to get serious about Waziristan.

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Rice: US Disappointed By Waziristan Truce
Ed Morrissey

Spring in Afghanistan usually means another Taliban offensive, and NATO forces expect an unusually energetic effort from the radical Islamists this year. The truce given by Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf to the tribes of Waziristan has given the Taliban more latitude in building up their forces for the offensive, a situation that Condoleezza Rice finds disappointing:

Fears that Taliban militants are preparing to launch a spring offensive from Pakistan's tribal areas are straining relations between President Pervez Musharraf and his US-led allies.

American officials are increasingly vocal about the dangers of Taliban safe havens inside Pakistan and in particular North Waziristan, one of Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal agencies, where General Musharraf struck a controversial peace deal last September. American generals say cross-border incursions have soared since then.

On Friday Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, spoke of "problems and disappointments" with the situation in Waziristan. ...

... Rice has it right when she calls the situation disappointing. None of us understood why Musharraf would have trusted the Taliban and signed off on an agreement like this with people who want him dead. Everything we've seen since confirms the original diagnosis.

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AQ Making A Comeback In Waziristan, Part II
Ed Morrissey

Following up on the story I posted below on Condoleezza Rice's "disappointment" with Pakistan over its truce with tribal leaders in Waziristan, the New York Times reports on how that truce has allowed not just the Taliban but also al-Qaeda to make a comeback. A series of blows to AQ by the US and its allies had relegated Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri to mostly inspirational roles among jihadists. Now Zawahiri, at least, has become much more operational, thanks to the breathing room provided by the Musharraf deal:

Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significant control over their once-battered worldwide terror network and over the past year have set up a band of training camps in the tribal regions near the Afghan border, according to American intelligence and counterterrorism officials.

American officials said there was mounting evidence that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, had been steadily building an operations hub in the mountainous Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. Until recently, the Bush administration had described Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri as detached from their followers and cut off from operational control of Al Qaeda.

The United States has also identified several new Qaeda compounds in North Waziristan, including one that officials said might be training operatives for strikes against targets beyond Afghanistan. ...

Counterterrorism experts analyze the stability and robustness of AQ in part by reviewing the frequency and timeliness of its broadcasts to the world. In 2006, the number of messages from bin Laden and Zawahiri doubled over the previous year, and the messages referred to events in a more timely manner -- sometimes within days, rather than several weeks as before. It demonstrates an ability to move tapes via courier much faster than before, which indicates a more stable network surrounding what American officials call "core al-Qaeda".

Western intelligence and military agencies are unsure how to proceed. American military strikes on these bases will violate Pakistani sovereignty, but Musharraf has not been willing to take on the task himself. The West cannot allow AQ to operate so easily, and the Bush doctrine certainly would apply here. However, if people thought Iraq was such a "meatgrinder", as one CQ commenter recently put it (and later retracted), it would be a walk in the park compared to an invasion of Waziristan and an occupation of that region. It would almost certainly pull down the Musharraf government in Islamabad, and its replacement would almost certainly be Islamist. Its army and intelligence services would immediately begin to attack American positions in the mountainous country, and we would then be at open war with a nuclear power. Plus, the lines of communication would make it difficult to resupply our troops even if that war went reasonably well; we could not hope to hold Waziristan for a significant period of time. ...