Brits Split
Jules Crittenden

Brits are halving their force in Iraq. Tony Blair, who long fought within his own party to do the right thing in Iraq, is giving in to political forces he is no longer willing to fight.  He’s leaving himself soon enough, so he might as well set the terms for the British draw down, to leave a reaction force in Basra, rather than allow someone else to precipitate a total withdrawal.  At the Captain’s Quarters, Ed sees it as the natural denouement  of the mission.  I’m more inclined to agree with Daily Pundit, who calls it the beginnings of peace and run. With the Iraqi government in an unstable situation and a major confrontation shaping up with Iran in Iraq, the Shiite south should not be left without significant supervision.  Anymore than Baghdad or Anbar can be.

Meanwhile, I’d like to note that one of our allies is taking the political heat, but apparently sticking with his plan to add more troops. John Howard says he won’t reduce Australia’s force in Iraq. Nor does that article indicate any change in the plan to send additional troops. ...

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British Troops To Leave Iraq
Ed Morrissey

Tony Blair will announce the start of force reductions in the southern, Shi'ite regions of Iraq. Blair will tell the UK that their mission to train the native Iraqi security forces and transfer responsibility to them had succeeded, and that their presence is no longer required:

Tony Blair is preparing to announce a major reduction in British troops in Iraq as a result of a successful operation to improve security in the southern city of Basra.

Downing Street indicated tonight that Mr Blair could make his promised statement this week on Britain's future strategy in Iraq, He will be in the Commons tomorrow for his weekly Prime Minister's questions session

Reports circulating in Whitehall tonight suggested that Britain's 7,000 contingent in Iraq could be cut to around 4,000 by the early summer. ...

This makes some sense, in that the southern provinces have always presented less trouble than the Sunni areas in the center and west of Iraq. The population is much more homogenously Shi'ite, and the new Iraqi Army fits better there than in Baghdad, Diyala, and Anbar. Other provinces in the south have already transferred to Iraqi control, and Basra follows, as it should.

However, there is no doubt that the transition comes at a difficult time for George Bush and the US. While Blair will allow the British forces to reduce through the end of fresh rotations into Basra, the US has started to send three times as many troops into Baghdad than what the Brits have in the entire country now. The progress in Basra will get overshadowed by the surge and the battle where the sectarian insurgencies meet in the Iraqi capital.  ...