Report: Female Brit sailor to be released
By Michelle Malkin  

So says Iran.

Faye Turney is a sea survival specialist who told British media that she loves her job, knew the risk going in, and had set her heart on life in the Royal Navy.

The rest of the hostages are reportedly to be paraded on television. Pajamas Media is tracking breaking developments. Melanie Phillips lambastes the appeasement of Iran.

Allah on top of the story and notes the price of freeing Turney: ...

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Breaking: Iran says it will release woman sailor;
Update: Set to air video “confession”?
Update: Confession released; video, screencaps added
Allahpundit

Today or tomorrow, according to the banner at CNN.com. Meanwhile, Blair has unleashed his dreaded “new phase” in the standoff: a freeze on all diplomatic matters with Iran unrelated to the hostage crisis and public presentation of GPS evidence that the ships were, indeed, in Iraqi waters. Iran has already responded on the latter point. The Beeb has a graphic.

Standby for updates.

Update: The report about the woman sailor comes from Turkish TV, quoting the Iranian foreign minister.

Update: Iran’s playing games with the GPS coordinates. From the Guardian link:

Vice Adm. Charles Style told reporters that the Iranians had provided a position on Sunday - a location that he said was in Iraqi waters. By Tuesday, Iranian officials had given a revised position 2 miles east, placing the British inside Iranian waters - a claim he said was not verified by global positioning system coordinates.

“It is hard to understand a legitimate reason for this change of coordinates,'’ Style said.

Style gave the satellite coordinates of the British crew as 29 degrees 50.36 minutes north latitude and 048 degrees 43.08 minutes east longitude, and said it had been confirmed by an Indian-flagged merchant ship boarded by the sailors and marines.

Update: Looks like there’s a price for letting her go. ...

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Tony Blair: Carter Or Thatcher? 
Ed Morrissey

Tony Blair seems to grasp the disaster awaiting Britain if it takes the Jimmy Carter strategy on Iranian hostaging of its sailors and Marines. He warned Iran that anything less than an immediate release of British servicement would move the confrontation to a "different phase", as the US quickly filled the Persian Gulf with warships:

Tony Blair warned Iran yesterday that the dispute over the 15 British servicemen seized in Gulf waters last week could move into a “different phase” if diplomacy failed to secure their release.

His words, immediately condemned by Iran as “provocative”, came as the US Navy began its biggest show of force in the Gulf since the invasion of Iraq four years ago, with manoeuvres involving two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships and more than 100 aircraft. ...

Different phase -- as in "outside of diplomacy", a convenient euphemism for military conflict. Later, Blair backed down a bit from the challenge, his spokesperson saying merely that Britain would start producing the evidence which would clearly show that Iran snatched the group from Iraqi waters -- but the point got made nonetheless. ...

They may find an American Thatcher if the Iranians continue their provocations. George Bush didn't send warships to the Gulf to allow sailors to get a tan. Quietly, Bush has conducted a new effort against Iranian power in the region, capturing its agents in Iraq and daring Teheran to respond. Iran tried an indirect response by capturing the British sailors. The Americans might try something more direct in the Gulf if the Iranians pull another stunt.

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"Hitting Back," British Style
John Hinderaker

The London Times reports that the U.K. is "hitting back" over Iran's seizure of 15 British sailors and marines:

Britain moved to ratchet up the pressure on Iran today over what Tony Blair called its "illegal" seizure of 15 Royal Navy personnel in the Gulf last Friday, freezing all ties with Tehran until the crisis is resolved and the group released.

After five days of discreet but fruitless diplomacy, the offensive began with a press conference at the MoD at which Vice-Admiral Charles Style published satellite coordinates proving that seven Royal Marines and eight sailors were 1.7 nautical miles inside Iraqi waters when they were "ambushed".

"Freezing all ties" means that Britain has stopped talking to Iran about anything other than the hostage situation. Call me cynical, but I doubt whether that greatly "ratchets up the pressure" on the mullahs. It's nice, too, that British authorities can prove that their vessel was really in Iraqi waters when it was seized, but it seems clear that the Iranians knew that all along, so I don't think the proof will impress them much. Note that Iran initially released coordinates where the encounter allegedly took place, but it turned out that the place was in Iraqi waters. So the Iranians just released a new set of coordinates that moved the location two miles to the north. I don't think that what we have here is a legitimate geographic misunderstanding.

This graphic, released by the British government, conveys a good sense of the relevant geography; click to enlarge:

As more facts come out, some will no doubt question whether the British reaction to the kidnapping-in-progress was too weak. Yesterday, Tony Blair said that he agreed with the sailors' decision to surrender rather than put up a fight, since "severe loss of life" would otherwise have resulted. At that moment, the British boat was badly outgunned. Of course, the boat was dispatched by HMS Cornwall, which was nearby. Here is how the Times describes that ship's role:

Mr Blair added by the time the crew of HMS Cornwall realised that the 15 had been detained and a Lynx helicopter dispatched to find them, they were already in Iranian waters - making intervention that much more dangerous.

One wonders whether pursuing the Iranian boats into Iranian waters might have brought about a speedier end to the crisis. ...

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Brits On Parade
Ed Morrissey

In an escalation to the crisis over the seizure of 15 British sailors and Marines, the Iranians have displayed them on television, apparently forcing the female sailor to read a public statement. The Iranians have also promised to release her as a goodwill gesture:

A letter allegedly written by a captured British sailor to her parents says she had "apparently" entered Iranian territorial waters, the Iranian Embassy in London said Wednesday.

The letter was addressed to the parents of Faye Turney, one of the 15 British sailors captured by Iranian forces after they allegedly trespassed in Iranian waters. An Iranian embassy official e-mailed a copy of the letter to The Associated Press, saying Turner wrote it on Wednesday. ...

Meanwhile, Iranian state TV showed video of some of the sailors and marines, including Turney, who wore a white tunic and a black head scarf and said the British boats "had trespassed" in Iranian waters.

Allahpundit and Power Line have more on the odd syntax used by Turney in her televised statement. It suggests that its true author has little familiarity with British English, or at least a tin ear for it. For some reason, the Iranians seem to feel that these video releases will somehow put minds at rest about the treatment of their abductees -- they did the same thing in 2004, and the effect was just as creepy and unbelievable then.

Plus, it amounts to another violation of the Geneva Convention. Convention III, Article 13 states: ...