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2007.04.12 Politics Roundup
Updated from the top. Please treat this as a blog-within-a-blog, come back often, and scroll down till you hit something you saw on your last visit.
- LAT poll: Rudy 29, Fred! 15, McCain 12
- LA Times Poll: Fred Gains As McCain Drops Back
- There is no Fred Thompson Boulevard
- 5 in the morning
- Hoffa: We'll "Blow Up" Denver For Dem Convention
- Thompson and Gingrich; apples and oranges
- McCain Unbound
- Fun Facts About The 110th Congress
*** LAT poll: Rudy 29, Fred! 15, McCain 12
Allahpundit
Fred’ll pick up 10 points once he formally declares so figure he’s within five of Rudy already. Quote: When the broader range of GOP candidates was assessed, Thompson did particularly well among Christian conservatives. He drew support from 21% of people who identified themselves with the religious right, followed by Giuliani with 17% and McCain with 10%. Thompson’s showing may reflect suspicion among social conservatives of the other front-runners on key issues like abortion and gay rights.
He’s not the news here, though, McCain is. Third place, worst polling ever, only four ahead of Mitt, and probably about to dip a bit further thanks to the two blockbuster bombings in Iraq today. He’s already downsizing his campaign staff after the thin first-quarter fundraising and trails both Hillary and Obama in the LAT poll. He’s not dropping out anytime soon, but the next quarter’s fundraising report is due on June 30th — right around the time the surge will be expected to start showing some concrete progress in Baghdad. If the news on both counts is grim, he’ll have some hard decisions to make around July 4th.
Worth noting: ...
*** LA Times Poll: Fred Gains As McCain Drops Back
Ed Morrissey
The Los Angeles Times reports on its latest polling for the Republican presidential primaries, and the only one who should be smiling is the scowlin' Volunteer, Fred Thompson. Rudy Giuliani polls at less than 30%, while McCain drops behind his good friend into a distant third place: Sen. John McCain, once considered the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has fallen to third place in a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, and is running behind Fred Thompson, an actor and former senator who has not even entered the race.
Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani leads the crowded field of announced and potential contenders with support from 29% of probable Republican primary voters surveyed, followed by Thompson with 15% and McCain with 12%. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and a fundraising powerhouse, had 8%.
The Arizona senator's showing in the poll is his lowest in any national survey to date, marking a new benchmark in his flagging fortunes. The surge of interest in Thompson is a sign of conservative dissatisfaction with the established field of candidates and underscores just how unsettled the Republican race remains. ...
It seems strange that McCain's numbers within the party would decline as they have. Those who feel uncomfortable with McCain have felt that way for a few years; if anything, McCain's party-line campaign should gain him some traction, not lose it. However, the LA Times finds the reason for McCain's fade and the strength of Rudy Giuliani's front-runner status: The survey also shows significant Republican desire to move beyond the George W. Bush era: 61% of Republican voters surveyed said they wanted the next GOP nominee to campaign on a platform of moving in a new direction. Only 30% said the nominee should call for continuing Bush policies.
For better or worse, McCain has come to represent the GWB establishment among Republicans since he chose to become the most energetic supporter of the war in Iraq. While the other GOP candidates all support the surge, none of them have the personal attachment to the war that McCain has forged. It's a courageous stand -- I genuinely admire McCain for taking it -- but it's costing him dearly. ...
*** There is no Fred Thompson Boulevard
Don Surber (H/T: DS)
[There's no way I can pull a meaninfull excerpt from this one without violating Fair Use. Read it.]
*** 5 in the morning
Don Surber
... Am I alone in being disturbed by Barack Obama’s call for firing a broadcaster over something he said? This off-with-his-heads mentality is unpresidential. Imagine if President Bush said someone should be fired. He called Adam Clymer an asshole and that caused a stir.
The message is chillingly clear: A President Obama would call for the firing of his critics.
Obama appeared on the Don Imus program early on in Obama’s career. This is how he re-pays friends.
Hillary Clinton has the same disdain for critics. Obviously, Ivy League law schools are deficient in their instruction on free speech....
*** Hoffa: We'll "Blow Up" Denver For Dem Convention
Ed Morrissey
The Democrats may stage an homage to Chicago 1968 in Denver for their 2008 convention. The AP reports that the party's union base objects strongly to the selection of the right-to-work city for the convention and are threatening to disrupt the proceedings if Denver doesn't start using closed shops: The Democrats' choice of Denver to anoint their presidential nominee in 2008 has stirred up angst among unions, one of the party's core groups, because of Colorado's reputation as an unfriendly place for organized labor. ...
Last month, the AFL-CIO threatened to force Democrats to abandon Denver after Colorado's Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter vetoed a bill making it easier to set up all-union workplaces. "Unless we can be assured that the governor will support our values and priorities, we will strongly urge the Democratic Party to relocate the convention," said the AFL-CIO's executive council.
Teamsters President James Hoffa chimed in last week, injecting himself into a conversation between Ritter and Sweeney at a Washington, D.C., dinner to say they would "blow up" Denver with picketing and protests if union issues didn't get worked out. ...
This has all the makings of a fiasco. If the unions follow through on Hoffa's threat, any hope of winning the general election may dissipate the same way it did forty years earlier, and they could frighten off moderates not just for the presidential contest but all the way down the ticket. ...
*** Thompson and Gingrich; apples and oranges
Paul Mirengoff
Dick Morris argues that Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich are harming the Republican presidential race by not making their intentions clear. "Until they make their respective moves to enter or foreswear entering the primaries," Morris argues, "they will freeze a critical segment of conservative Republicans who are withholding their affections from other suitors, waiting for Mr. Right to arrive."
Morris is far more savvy about these matters than I'll ever be, but I don't see the problem. Part of his complaint is that the specter of Thompson/Gingrich prevents lesser conservatives, e.g. Brownback and Huckabee, from gaining traction. However, I regard these candidates as non-starters. If it were otherwise, Thompson probably would never have been tempted to enter. As to the top-tier candidates, the absence of Thompson and Gingrich provides the current front-runners the opportunity to woo and receive serious consideration from the party's conservatives. Since Giuliani and McCain poll pretty well against Hillary Clinton and other top Democratic contenders, I consider it a good thing if conservatives are at least listening to them. As for Mitt Romney, the specter of Thompson/Gingrich doesn't seem to have hurt his fundraising. The entrance of either would be a severe blow to Romney, but if they don't enter he's well-positioned to make his run at becoming the conservative choice.
By the way, I don't see Thompson and Gingrich in the same light. ...
*** McCain Unbound
John Hinderaker
Earlier today, John McCain delivered a speech on the Iraq war at Virginia Military Institute. It was an excellent, hard-hitting speech. You can read it all here; these are a few key paragraphs: ...
[I posted a longer excerpt here but do go read the whole thing.]
*** Fun Facts About The 110th Congress
Ed Morrissey
The Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress in part by promising that they would change the way Congress conducts business, both in terms of ethics and productivity. Calling the Republican-led 109th a "Do-Nothing Congress", Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid promised more action, longer work weeks, and a blockbuster first 100 days.
How has that worked out? Not particularly well. The 110th has managed to get all of two bills passed into law by the end of their first 100 days: ...
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